Home prices trail inflation again: where growth still holds

Home prices inched up only slightly to wrap the spring homebuying season. 

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The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller indices posted a 1.5% annual gain in home prices in June, but just a 0.1% monthly increase. While the year-over-year figure represented a slight uptick, the monthly trend was a larger step backward. 

The gains trailed inflation for the 13th consecutive month according to the S&P Dow Jones indices, citing June’s 3.5% marker. Inflation isn’t showing signs of slowing, following a “humid” consumer price index report earlier this month. 

The Federal Housing Finance Agency also revealed meager price increases Tuesday, as its seasonally adjusted monthly index was unchanged in June from May. The FHFA House Price Index showed a 0.3% quarterly rise, and a 2.1% annual increase in the second quarter, behind May numbers.

With June near the peak of the homebuying season, price appreciation will moderate and cooler market activity is coming, said Rebecca Kaufman, associate director of commodities at the S&P Dow Jones Indices. 

“While home prices continue to decline in real terms, lower inflation and firmer nominal home price growth in June helped slow that pace of erosion,” she said in a press release.

Hot and cool markets

Home price growth has slowed significantly since the pandemic and remains muted compared to the pre-pandemic market. Both home price trackers emphasized continued positive momentum, as the S&P said its national index is still up 9.3% from a June 2022 peak. 

The S&P found greater annual price gains, on a monthly basis, across its 10- and 20-city composite indices. The strongest markets in June were Chicago, New York and Cleveland, with year-over-year home price growth of 6.9%, 4.8%, and 4.1%, respectively. Home prices softened in Seattle, Las Vegas and Denver, which reported annual declines between 1% and 2%. 

The FHFA also posted yearly home price increases in all but four states, with the most sluggish market in New Mexico posting just a 1.2% annual decrease. The East North Central Division: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin, recorded the strongest yearly gains with a 4.5% increase in prices. The Pacific Coast states meanwhile were nearly flat.

Home prices are still relatively lofty, and homeowners today have a record amount of equity they can tap for borrowing. Home buyers can also enjoy increased negotiating power in the market flush with sellers, although high mortgage rates continue to dampen interest.