Homebuyers are expected to pay 110% more in stamp duty by 2030, with revenues rising from £8.6 billion in 2023 to £18.1 billion in 2030, according to Coventry Building Society’s analysis of the Office’s forecast for Budget Responsibility (OBR).
The spike in stamp duty revenues easily exceeds the expected 41% growth in residential property transactions over the same period, indicating how much more individual homebuyers will pay in tax.
With the OBR also forecasting house price rises of 15% over the next six years, the rise in stamp duty will be fueled by the combination of more homes being bought at higher prices as barriers fall to attract more buyers.
At the same time, there will also be an additional surcharge on the tax assessments for landlords and buyers of holiday homes.
In the recent Budget, the stamp duty surcharge on additional properties was increased from 3% to 5% – meaning anyone who bought an average-priced property in England as an additional property received an overnight tax increase of £6,192.
And from early April 2025, the nil rate thresholds will drop from £250,000 to £125,000 for movers, and from £425,000 to £300,000 for first-time buyers.
Commenting on the latest research, Jonathan Stinton, head of mortgage relations at Coventry Building Society, said: “The amount homebuyers pay in stamp duty will double by 2030 – that means quite a significant increase for anyone looking to buy a home in the coming years. Landlords took the first hit when the 5% surcharge came into effect overnight, and buyers across the board must now brace for the April cliff.”
He added: “These increases are good for the Treasury, but the balance has to be just right so that people are not put off buying homes. The health of the housing market depends on people being able to buy and sell quite easily, which could have consequences if the tax burden becomes too expensive to bear.”