While 2024 has brought a greater degree of stability and positivity to the mortgage industry, there is still work to be done, with mortgage-backed sales volumes over the past three months still 49% lower than this time last year.
This is according to Octane Capital, whose analysis of mortgage sales volumes reveals the impact a rate hike since the close of 2021 has had on buyer appetite.
Over the last three months (December 23 to February 24 – latest available data), 61,968 mortgage-backed transactions were recorded in the UK. This total is 49% below the total in the same period a year ago.
In fact, mortgage market activity in all parts of the country continues to lag in this regard year after year, with one exception.
In Scotland, the volume of mortgage sales over the past three months is almost identical to that of this time last year.
In all other parts of Britain, mortgage sales volumes have fallen by more than 50% in the past three months compared to this time last year, with the east of England seeing the biggest drop at 56.5%.
Positivity in the mortgage sector has been high in 2024 and the latest mortgage approval data from the Bank of England shows that monthly approvals exceeded 60,000 for the third month in a row in April. These are clear signs that the sector is back on its feet, following the reduction in the base rate since September last year.
The analysis shows that keeping the base rate has also led to signs of positivity in terms of mortgage sales volumes.
Some 223,465 mortgage-backed transactions were completed in the UK during the second half of 2023, representing a 5.5% increase on the first six months of the year.
The biggest increase was in the South East, where mortgage sales volume rose 10.7% in the second half compared to the first half, with London not far behind with an increase of 10.1%.
However, the latest figures show that there is still a long way to go before the mortgage sector is back to full strength.
Jonathan Samuels, CEO of Octane Capital, commented: “There is a growing atmosphere of positivity in the mortgage sector and this is hardly surprising with approvals remaining above 60,000 for three consecutive months and the prospect of a base rate cut in the lies ahead.
“However, positivity alone will not revive the market and, as things stand, there is still a long way to go before we see mortgage-fueled market activity return to previous levels.”
He added: “This will probably take some time